Blackjack Bust Probability Calculator: Your Chance of Busting on a Hit
Enter your cards to see the exact chance that one more card busts you, which hard totals are dangerous, and how often a natural blackjack shows up.
The right move also depends on the dealer's card: see the
, or see how often the dealer busts in the
The short version
Hitting a hard 12 busts 30.8% of the time (4 in 13), a hard 16 busts 61.5% (8 in 13) and a hard 17 busts 69.2%. From a hard 11 or less you cannot bust on one card.
A soft hand, one with an Ace counted as 11, cannot bust on a single card because the Ace can drop to 1. That is why hitting soft 17 is far safer than hitting hard 17.
The cards you can see change the odds: holding a ten makes another ten slightly less likely next. With fewer decks the effect is bigger.
A natural blackjack arrives about 4.8% of the time, roughly one hand in 21, and a little more often with fewer decks.
How the numbers work
Why a 16 feels so bad
Ten-value cards are 4 of every 13. A hard 12 busts only on a ten. Each point higher adds another busting card, and a hard 16 busts on a 6, 7, 8, 9 or any ten-value card, which is 8 cards in 13. Hitting it is not always wrong, though: standing is often only a little better, and the dealer's upcard decides which choice is the lesser evil.
Soft hands can't bust on one card
A hand with an Ace counted as 11 can always turn it into a 1, so one more card cannot bust it. That is why basic strategy hits soft totals so freely, such as soft 17 against most upcards. You can still bust later, once the hand turns hard.
Your cards change the odds
Cards in your hand and on the table are no longer in the shoe. Holding a ten and a six makes another ten slightly less likely. With one deck the effect is clear; with eight it is a small nudge, which is why the endless-shoe figures are close for big shoes.
Naturals and the number of decks
A natural needs an Ace and a ten-value card. With fewer decks, taking one of the pair out of the shoe leaves a slightly bigger share of the other kind, so naturals are a touch more common: 4.83% with one deck against 4.73% from an endless shoe. Everything here is educational, with no real money involved.
Table Edge